A turbulent night between Monday 12 and Tuesday 13 October. According to the Journal du Coin, bitcoin plunged to around $81,400 on Monday evening, before climbing back to around $83,200 on Tuesday morning, almost at its level of the previous day. In the meantime, $771 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in twenty-four hours. Altcoins then rebounded faster than bitcoin, and a whale moved 4,582 BTC received in March 2020.
A signal from Seoul
According to The Block, cited by the Journal du Coin, bitcoin was worth $81,382 on Monday at 21:20 New York time (3:20 in Paris), down 2.8% over twenty-four hours.
The trigger came from Asia. The Financial Times reports that Samsung and SK Hynix plunged after remarks by the head of Broadcom, who spoke of a “casino” in relation to investments in artificial intelligence. According to The Block, the Kospi fell 6.1% on Tuesday morning, and the Seoul stock exchange dropped sharply. Bitcoin followed the move.
On Tuesday morning, the Journal du Coin recorded a price of $83,160, up 0.3% over twenty-four hours.
The mechanics of liquidations
Of the $771 million in liquidated positions, CoinGlass, the liquidation tracking tool, counted $685.6 million in long positions. A long is a bet on a rise, often amplified by borrowing. When the initial stake no longer covers the losses, the platform forcibly closes the position.
Over the last twelve hours of that session, $631.8 million had already been wiped out, including $600 million in longs, according to figures reported by the Journal du Coin. The outlet points out that this public data is a floor: databases miss some of the orders executed.
In analysis terms, leverage works both ways. A forced closure of a long position amounts to a sale, which can in turn weigh on the price and push other positions closer to their threshold. That is what makes these episodes so fast. On their own, however, they say nothing about the market’s future direction.
The episode is not an isolated one. Five days earlier, again according to the Journal du Coin, a comparable sequence had wiped out $460 million in one hour.
ETF outflows, Strategy buys
According to SoSoValue figures reported by The Block, US bitcoin ETFs recorded $681.1 million in outflows last week, their worst performance since late June. US ether ETFs lost $542.1 million over the same period; according to the Journal du Coin, this was their worst week since January, after nine consecutive sessions of outflows.
Going against the tide, Strategy announced on Monday the purchase of 250 bitcoins for $21.5 million between 5 and 11 October, at an average price of $86,194. Its holdings thus reach 848,250 BTC.
Altcoins recover faster
In its altcoin roundup published on Tuesday morning, the Journal du Coin notes that several long-established coins rebounded faster than bitcoin, without however erasing the fall. Over twenty-four hours, Litecoin gained 4.7%, Cardano 5.3% and Zcash 5%, compared with around 0.5% for bitcoin. Over seven days, bitcoin rose 2.8%, XRP 8.7%, dogecoin 10.9%, and Litecoin and Cardano 11%.
- Ether: fell to $2,425 during the night, climbed back to $2,505 on Tuesday morning, compared with $2,614 on 7 October.
- XRP: $1.36 on Tuesday morning, up 2.7% over twenty-four hours, but below Monday morning’s level of $1.40.
- Litecoin: $61.83, or 4% below its Monday morning level ($64.55).
- Zcash: a plunge of more than 10% to around $1,149 during the night, then a 5% rebound to $1,213, below Monday morning’s $1,266.
In other words, the rebound is real but partial: several assets were still below the previous day’s price on Tuesday morning.
A whale stirs from its slumber
Another move of the day, spotted by the Journal du Coin: a wallet moved around 4,582 BTC on Monday 12 October, or $377.6 million according to the valuation reported by Lookonchain. The address “18Vm…VpQ9x” had received most of its funds on 3 March 2020, a few days before the Covid crash, for a value of around $40.8 million at the time. According to Lookonchain and Arkham data, the bitcoins were split between five addresses.
Two caveats are in order. First, the address was not completely inactive: it had recorded a small outflow of 0.009 BTC on 7 August 2024. Second, the appreciation of around $336.8 million does not necessarily correspond to the holder’s profit, since receiving funds at an address proves neither a purchase on that date nor the price paid.
Above all, moving bitcoins is not the same as selling them. A reorganisation of custody or an over-the-counter transaction are among the possible explanations, but none has been established. The identity of the recipients and the holder’s intentions remain unknown.
The calendar for the coming days
US inflation for September will be published on Wednesday 14 October at 14:30 Paris time. According to the Journal du Coin, the consensus is around 3.7% year on year for the headline index, compared with 3.4% in August.
