A mixed week on commodity markets. According to Allnews, citing an AWP/AFP dispatch published on Friday, nickel fell to its lowest level since December 2025, the gold price moved up and down, and cocoa edged higher. Three moves driven by very different forces.

Nickel at its lowest since December 2025

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), a tonne of nickel for delivery in three months was trading on Friday at $15,385, after touching $15,070 on Thursday, compared with $15,622 at the close a week earlier.

The decline is partly explained by a revision of the supply outlook. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) published a report on Tuesday that now forecasts a surplus of 19,000 tonnes in 2026, whereas its April estimate had anticipated a deficit of 32,000 tonnes this year. This is a forecast, not an observation: it is likely to ease pressure on demand and weigh on the price.

The picture is not clear-cut. "This surplus should nevertheless be significantly smaller than the nearly 300,000 tonnes recorded last year," notes Barbara Lambrecht, an analyst at Commerzbank. Indonesia, by far the world's largest producer, has set a much stricter ore mining quota (RKAB) for 2026 than in 2025, but the drop in production has turned out to be smaller than expected.

The gold price torn between inflation and safe-haven value

Gold was initially hurt by US inflation. Published on Wednesday, the US consumer price index (CPI) continued to accelerate in September, rising 3.7% year on year, boosted by energy prices. The market then raised the probability of a tightening of monetary policy, which favoured the dollar and caused the yellow metal to fall.

The mechanism is well known: when US Federal Reserve rates are higher, dollar assets offer a better return, which is unfavourable to gold. But the greenback fell back at the end of the week and gold partially recovered.

Another reading adds to that of monetary policy. "Factors other than monetary policy are still supporting the precious metal," says Thu Lan Nguyen of Commerzbank. Concerns about France's debt, for example, "are in turn fuelling ever stronger demand for safe-haven assets such as gold," the analyst adds. In the end, an ounce of gold (31.1 g) was trading in London at $4,188.16, compared with $4,194.24 at the close of the previous week, virtually unchanged.

The cocoa price supported by demand and the weather

Cocoa prices rose slightly. In New York, a tonne for December delivery was trading at $5,815, compared with $5,665 at the close seven days earlier. In London, a tonne for March delivery was worth £4,461 on Friday, compared with £4,385 a week earlier.

Two factors are put forward. First, demand: cocoa grinding increased by 3.2% in Europe in the third quarter compared with the previous year. "This was the first year-on-year quarterly increase in more than two years," notes Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank. In Asia, the local cocoa association (CAA) even reported a 29% year-on-year increase. Second, the weather: in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, the two main producing countries, "rainfall has been insufficient recently, which could have a negative impact on the main crop currently under way," according to the same analyst. Here again, this is a risk being raised, not an observed drop in the harvest.

What these moves may mean for businesses

The dispatch says nothing about the effect of these developments on Swiss companies, whether in chocolate, watchmaking or industry. Generally speaking, a rise in the price of a commodity makes purchases more expensive for the companies that process it, while a fall eases their costs. But the actual effect depends on many parameters specific to each company: supply contracts concluded in advance, hedging on futures markets, the share of the raw material in the final cost, or exchange rate movements, since these prices are set in dollars or pounds.

Over a single week, moreover, the changes remain modest, especially for gold. They say more about the forces at play (nickel supply, US monetary policy, cocoa demand) than about a lasting trend.

Sources

  • Allnews: "Matières premières: le nickel s’affaisse, l’or tergiverse, le cacao progresse"