Rise fast, fall for a long time. That is the profile Coin Metrics draws for memecoins in its State of the Network report of 6 October 2026, relayed by Journal du Coin. The analytics firm tracked the path of around 150 tokens in this cryptocurrency category, from their first trade to their collapse. The finding is clear, but the method calls for several precautions before drawing a general rule from it.

Three moments in the life of a memecoin

Coin Metrics splits each trajectory into three markers: the first observed trade, the all-time high, then the moment the price has lost 95% from that peak.

According to the report, the peak comes early. The median time between the start of trading and the peak is 17.2 days. A quarter of the tokens even peak in under 1.6 days, or less than thirty-eight hours. Journal du Coin points out that this does not mean a token stays at the top for seventeen days, nor that its price climbs smoothly during that period.

The fall, on the other hand, drags on. Again according to Coin Metrics, it takes a median of 370 days between the peak and crossing the 95% loss threshold. Here too, it is not a steady slide: intermediate rebounds can punctuate the decline. The report also states that 81% of the tokens studied fell by at least 90% from a peak, and that returns to record highs remain rare.

A bit of arithmetic helps measure the gap between a rebound and a recovery. After a 90% drop, a price must be multiplied by ten to get back to its previous level. After a 95% loss, it must be multiplied by twenty.

A medical method, an already filtered sample

To estimate these durations, Coin Metrics uses the Kaplan-Meier method, used in medical studies to calculate survival times. Its advantage is that it takes into account tokens that had not yet reached the measured event at the time of the analysis, rather than discarding them.

The vocabulary nonetheless deserves a careful reading. The "death" of a memecoin is a statistical convention here: the 95% loss threshold. A token can keep circulating and attracting transactions despite the collapse of its price. Crossing that threshold therefore proves neither that the project has been abandoned nor that its community has disappeared.

The main limitation lies in the sample. To be included, a token must have price data on at least one centralised exchange. This condition rules out a large share of the tokens launched on platforms such as Pump.fun, whose trading life is limited to decentralised exchanges. The tokens observed have therefore already gained a visibility and market access that many others never reach. Their lifespans do not necessarily reflect those of the most short-lived creations, and many early failures escape measurement.

Liquidity and distribution: what the displayed price does not tell you

These trajectories also say something about liquidity. Journal du Coin stresses it: a listing does not guarantee sufficient liquidity, and the displayed price is not the amount actually recoverable when selling. In a shallow market, selling a large position can on its own push the price down. A token can therefore remain listed, with a visible ticker, without offering an exit at the displayed terms.

That leaves the question of how gains and losses are distributed among holders. The price declines measured by Coin Metrics do not directly say what share of investors lost money: that depends on purchase dates, sales, the amounts committed and fees. At launch, no one knows which token will attract buyers, which one will quickly disappear, or whether the first holders will sell before the next ones. In a market where the peak comes within a few days, the order of entry and exit weighs heavily on each person's result.

  • The peak can only be recognised after the fact, which makes the idea of buying "at the right time" on the basis of these medians illusory.
  • A token's presence on a platform is not, on its own, a sign of recovery.
  • A rebound after a steep decline remains very far from a full recovery.

What the study says about crypto risk

The report does not support the conclusion that buying in the first hours would be a winning strategy, and it does not claim to. Above all, it documents the fragility of the trajectories observed: a spectacular rise can precede a long decline. Journal du Coin sums it up by describing a market for an informed audience.

These figures do not concern Switzerland in particular, and the study says nothing about regulation. Yet they illustrate a principle that applies to any speculative asset, in Switzerland as elsewhere: a price can collapse, and a near-total loss remains a possible scenario. For an investor, that is probably the most useful reading of Coin Metrics' work. With a memecoin, the question is not only how high the price can go, but how long it takes to come back down, and at what price one can still sell along the way.

Sources

  • Journal du Coin: "Memecoins: 17 days to reach the peak, one year to lose 95%!"