CoinGecko’s quarterly report, published on 15 October 2026 and detailed by Journal du Coin, puts the rise in the total crypto market capitalisation between July and September 2026 at 39.6%. According to the document, it was the best quarter since the end of 2024, after three quarters of decline. Two other series from the same report point the other way, however: spot volumes fell again, while leveraged positions grew markedly.

An 840 billion rebound, concentrated in August

In raw figures, capitalisation went from USD 2,100 billion at the end of June to 2,960 billion on 30 September 2026, an extra 840 billion in three months. The quarter’s peak was reached on 21 September, at 3,000 billion. More than half of the rise came from August alone: +21.8%, or USD 490 billion.

Journal du Coin links the August move to two factors: the US Treasury’s announcement that it would at least double its buybacks of long-term bonds, and net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs throughout the month. These links remain the outlet’s interpretation, not a demonstrated causality.

One point about the time frame puts the rebound into perspective. At the close of the quarter, total capitalisation was still down 4% since 1st January 2026. The year had started slightly above USD 3,000 billion, a level the market had not regained by the end of September.

Ether ahead of bitcoin, with less trading

Among the large caps, ether posted the best performance of the quarter, bitcoin included: +71%, at 2,684 dollars at the end of the period. The report places the driver in US spot Ethereum ETFs, which absorbed a net USD 3.1 billion between July and September and wiped out all the outflows of the first half of the year.

ETH’s daily spot volume nevertheless fell by 23.2% over the period, to USD 11.5 billion, against 15 billion in the second quarter. Journal du Coin draws an interpretation from this: an asset that gains 71% with a quarter less volume is an asset that few people sell and few people buy, apart from the ETFs.

Spot trading volume down, leverage above 100 billion

Across the market as a whole, average daily spot volume fell by 8.6% in the third quarter of 2026, to USD 73.3 billion. It was the third consecutive quarterly decline. The monthly profile shows buyers returning late: 57.7 billion a day in July, 94.8 billion in September.

The top ten centralised exchanges handled USD 1,650 billion in spot volume over the quarter, 14.2% less than in the second quarter. In this narrower market, concentration is increasing: Binance’s share rose to 42.7%, against 38.7% the previous quarter.

Leverage, for its part, followed prices. Open interest on the top ten perpetuals exchanges, that is, the total amount of leveraged positions still open, grew by 40.6% to close the quarter at USD 102.2 billion. The 100 billion threshold had not held since the third quarter of 2025. The rise is uneven: Binance alone added 12.7 billion, while KuCoin lost 41.2% and Deribit 18.9% over the same period.

What the divergence says about the strength of the rebound

The general mechanism is well known. A rise driven by spot buying implies buyers who pay for and hold the assets. A rise accompanied by swelling leverage rests more on borrowed positions, which platforms can forcibly liquidate when the price turns. Journal du Coin sums up the imbalance at the end of September as follows: the 102.2 billion in open interest is “the raw material” of liquidations, and the 73.3 billion in daily spot volume “the only cushion on the other side”.

Events after the quarter point in that direction, without amounting to proof. On 15 October, bitcoin fell back below 81,000 dollars, liquidations exceeded one billion dollars in 24 hours and ether gave back 11% relative to its close on 30 September.

Several limitations call for caution in reading these figures:

  • the exchange series cover the top ten platforms, for spot as well as perpetuals, and not the whole market;
  • the composition of this top 10 changed along the way: Bitget, whose activity was already declining before its September hack, dropped out of the ranking and now sits eleventh;
  • the data cited here come from CoinGecko’s report as presented by Journal du Coin, and its calculation method is not detailed there;
  • they describe a past quarter, from July to September 2026, and say nothing about future price movements.

The third-quarter rebound is therefore real in prices, but it was built with less spot trading and more leverage. It is this combination, more than the 40% figure, that reveals its fragility.

Sources

  • Journal du Coin: “Rapport CoinGecko T3 2026 : la crypto rebondit de 40 % mais les traders n’ont pas suivi”