Raiffeisen’s economists have significantly raised their forecasts for the Swiss economy. In an analysis published on Thursday 8 October 2026, reported by the Keystone-ATS news agency and by SWI swissinfo.ch, the bank now expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.7% in 2026, compared with 0.8% in its previous estimate. It draws a monetary policy conclusion from this: in its view, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) should soon end its zero interest rate policy. This is a forecast by a commercial bank, not a decision or an announcement by the SNB.
2026 growth forecast doubled
The revision concerns GDP adjusted for the effects of major sporting events. For 2026, Raiffeisen moves from +0.8% to +1.7%, an estimate more than twice as high as the previous one. For 2027, however, the bank maintains its forecast of +1.3%. In other words, it does not see this year’s acceleration continuing at the same pace next year: the growth expected for 2027 remains below that now forecast for 2026.
To justify this upgrade, the bank puts forward several factors. In its view, the Swiss economy remains on a recovery path and has so far been only slightly affected by the consequences of the war in the Middle East. Business confidence has held up, including in the face of the conflict’s renewed escalation in September. Finally, growth figures for the second quarter proved stronger than expected, driven by the momentum of the pharmaceutical sector.
Inflation expected to be slightly higher
Raiffeisen is also raising its inflation estimates. For 2026, it now forecasts a price increase of 0.7%, compared with 0.5% previously. For 2027, it expects +1.1%, compared with +0.8% in its previous forecast. These levels remain low in absolute terms, but the direction of the revision matters: both years are revised upwards.
The bank attributes this shift to two factors. On the one hand, the effect of high energy prices should, in its view, last longer than hoped. On the other, core inflation is said to be tending to rise owing to a weaker Swiss franc and increased pressure from abroad.
The reasoning on SNB rates
From these two revisions, Raiffeisen concludes that the SNB should raise its rates soon. Its argument: the Swiss economy is now running close to its potential, while inflation remains comfortably within the target range of 0 to 2%. Against this backdrop, the zero interest rate policy, which has so far supported the economy, seems to it less and less appropriate.
The bank’s analysts believe that the SNB, chaired by Martin Schlegel, could adjust its rates as early as its next monetary policy assessment, scheduled for 10 December. Caution is called for: this is Raiffeisen’s hypothesis, and the decision rests with the SNB alone, which did not comment in the source cited.
What needs to be distinguished
Three levels of information coexist in this publication. First, the findings: second-quarter growth stronger than expected and business confidence that has held up, as reported by Raiffeisen. Next, the forecasts: 1.7% growth in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, 0.7% then 1.1% inflation, which remain projections subject to revision, as shown by the size of the correction made to the 2026 estimate. Finally, the interpretation: the idea that a rate hike would now be justified reflects the bank’s own reading.
According to Raiffeisen, its forecast rests on the combination of an economy close to its potential and rising inflation. The source does not mention forecasts from other institutes, which makes it impossible to say whether this reading is shared.
For businesses and households, what would be at stake in a possible rate hike is the cost of credit and the return on savings. But at this stage, nothing has been decided: the next indication will come from the SNB itself, on 10 December.
