The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is leaving its policy rate unchanged at 0%. It announced this in its press release of 24 September 2026. Here is what the SNB writes about its reasons, inflation and its forecasts, and what can, or cannot, be inferred from it for households and businesses.
What the SNB decided
Sight deposits held by banks at the SNB are remunerated at the policy rate up to a certain threshold. Above this threshold, the discount remains set at 0.25 percentage points. The press release does not specify the level of this threshold. The SNB adds that it is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, in order to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
The reasons given
The SNB bases its decision on three observations. First, inflation has risen further since June, mainly due to higher energy prices. Second, inflationary pressure over the medium term has increased only slightly. Finally, the SNB considers that its monetary policy is appropriate for keeping inflation within the range consistent with price stability and that it supports economic developments.
Inflation: the published figures
According to the SNB, inflation rose from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August 2026. According to the chart in the press release, this refers to the annual change in the Swiss consumer price index. The central bank attributes this increase to the rise in goods inflation, which in August was positive for the first time since May 2024. According to the press release, this is mainly explained by higher prices for oil products.
The conditional inflation forecast
The SNB's so-called conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption of a policy rate of 0% over the entire forecast horizon. The September 2026 forecast puts average annual inflation at 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 0.8% for 2028. According to the SNB, the forecast remains within the range of price stability over the entire horizon.
Under this scenario, inflation is expected to rise somewhat further in the fourth quarter, then decline in the course of 2027, as energy inflation, currently significantly elevated, is expected to decrease in the coming quarters. The forecast then rises slightly again. Compared with the June 2026 forecast, the short-term forecast is higher due to prices for oil products that are above expectations. In the medium term, it is also slightly higher, which the SNB attributes in particular to the weakening of the Swiss franc. These are forecasts, not observed figures.
Economic outlook: growth and uncertainties
Internationally, the SNB notes that global growth was stronger than expected in the second quarter and that, in many countries, inflation remains above central bank targets, notably because of energy prices. It points out that policy rates have been raised in the euro area and in the United States, without specifying in the press release the dates or the size of these increases. Its baseline scenario foresees moderate global growth in the coming quarters and inflation that remains elevated for some time.
In Switzerland, GDP growth was exceptionally strong in the second quarter. According to the SNB, however, an unusually robust performance by the chemical and pharmaceutical industry led GDP to overstate the underlying momentum; even without this effect, growth was solid and broad-based. At the same time, capacity utilisation was below average, especially in manufacturing, and unemployment rose slightly again up to the beginning of the summer. The SNB expects moderate growth in the coming quarters. For 2026 as a whole, it currently forecasts growth of between 1.5% and 2%, and still around 1.5% for 2027.
The SNB's baseline scenario remains subject to high uncertainty, above all because of the situation in the Middle East: energy prices could be significantly higher than expected, which, according to the SNB, would push inflation up further and markedly dampen growth. The trade policy environment and exchange rate developments also remain sources of uncertainty.
What this may mean for households and businesses
The press release contains no specific passage on households or businesses; it says nothing, for example, about mortgage rates, savings or credit. On this point, the SNB states that its monetary policy supports economic developments and that this policy, like the recent depreciation of the franc, has a supporting effect on growth.
A cautious reading, which does not commit the SNB, would be as follows. For households, the most concrete point concerns prices: the SNB expects inflation to decline in the course of 2027, a forecast that depends in particular on energy prices. For businesses, the SNB mentions growth impulses from abroad and the recent depreciation of the franc, but also below-average capacity utilisation in manufacturing. The source does not say how these factors will affect any particular budget or business.
For further details, the SNB refers to the introductory remarks by its Governing Board, announced on its website from 10 a.m. on 24 September 2026 and not consulted for this article.
