On the one hand, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) reports a 1.5% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2026, the strongest since the third quarter of 2021, and the growth forecast for the year has been raised to 1.7%. On the other, the company Crif counts 11,412 business bankruptcies in the first nine months of the year, 37% more than in the same period of 2025. These two signals do not necessarily contradict each other: they do not measure the same thing.
An exceptional second quarter, driven by pharma
According to SECO, GDP adjusted for sporting events grew by 1.5% in the second quarter, after +0.5% in the first. Without this adjustment, the increase reached 1.9%, after 0.6%. The industrial sector jumped by 3.9%, pulled by manufacturing (+4.5%) and above all by the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, whose value added rose by 10.5% after several quarters of weak or even negative growth. Exports of goods rose by 5.5%.
Services grew by 0.7% and final domestic demand by 0.5%, a pace close to its historical average according to SECO, after a weak start to the year. Private consumption rose by 0.3%. Retail trade (+1.2%) and accommodation and food services (+1.4%) saw their value added increase, as did construction investment (+0.7%).
A forecast raised, but a correction expected
On 17 September, the Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles raised its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.7%, from 0.9% in June. The forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 1.6%. These are forecasts, not observations, and the experts themselves urge caution: in their view, the second-quarter increase probably overstates the underlying momentum, since almost half of it comes from the highly volatile value added of the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, accompanied by a sharp jump in exports. They therefore expect some correction in the second half of the year.
On the labour market, the expert group expects an average unemployment rate of 3.1% in 2026, then 3.0% in 2027, and average inflation of 0.6% in each of the two years. Main risks cited: the conflict in the Middle East, energy prices and US tariff policy.
Bankruptcies rising sharply in several sectors
The Crif figures, reported by swissinfo.ch on 2 October, show another side. The hardest-hit sectors are construction (1,380 companies, +13%), restaurants (1,019, +20%) and retail trade (895, +51%). In absolute terms, Zurich (1,850, +28%), Geneva (1,369, +65%) and Vaud (1,006, +30%) have the most cases. Ticino (+48%, to 721) and Graubünden (+95%, to 218) are above the national average.
At the same time, according to the figures reported by swissinfo.ch, 40,487 companies were founded between January and September, 2% more than a year earlier. Business consulting (3,499, +25%) comes first, while new start-ups are falling in retail trade (2,823, −12%).
How to read these two signals
- A legal effect. According to the swissinfo.ch article, part of the increase is explained by a change in the law: since 1 January 2025, tax debts of companies listed in the commercial register can also be collected through bankruptcy proceedings, whereas previously the authorities could only use seizure. The source does not quantify the share of the increase linked to this change.
- Different measures. GDP measures the value added produced over a quarter; the bankruptcy count covers nine months and a number of companies, regardless of their size. A hypothesis: growth boosted by the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and exports can coexist with difficulties at many small businesses. The sources, however, say nothing about the size of the companies that drove the increase.
- Broad growth, but boosted by the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. SECO and the Expert Group describe second-quarter growth as broad-based, affecting both sectors and demand components. But excluding the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, manufacturing grew by only 0.7%. The sectors where bankruptcies are rising most are not the ones that drove growth. In retail trade and accommodation and food services, however, value added did increase in the second quarter, and construction investment rose; one possible reading is that the difficulties affect certain companies rather than these sectors as a whole.
Retail trade illustrates this ambivalence: real turnover up in the second quarter according to SECO, but bankruptcies up 51% according to Crif and start-ups down 12% according to the figures reported by swissinfo.ch. The sources do not make it possible to decide between restructuring, a legal effect or lasting fragility.
What this means for businesses and households
For households, the official forecasts remain fairly reassuring: unemployment expected to fall slightly and moderate inflation. For businesses, the picture is more nuanced. Exporters benefit, according to the expert group, from a slightly more favourable global environment and the recent depreciation of the franc. Sectors focused on the domestic market, for their part, are operating with demand that is growing moderately. The next data will show whether the correction expected in the second half of the year materialises.
