Swiss tourism is expected to enjoy a winter 2026-2027 almost as strong as the previous one. In its forecast published on 30 October 2026, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, the economic research centre of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH Zurich), expects around 18.7 million hotel overnight stays for the season starting in November. That is 0.1% fewer than the record winter of 2025-2026. Swiss and European guests would offset the decline in long-haul markets, held back by the war in Iran.

A winter expected at record level

The record to beat is an observed figure, not a forecast. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) press release of 8 June 2026, Swiss hotels recorded 18.7 million overnight stays between November 2025 and April 2026. This is the best result ever measured, up 1.1% (+198,000 overnight stays) year on year.

KOF forecasts around 15,000 fewer overnight stays for winter 2026-2027. The level would remain very high and above that of winter 2024-2025, according to the institute's press release. The forecast has barely changed since spring: on 26 May 2026, KOF was already announcing 18.7 million overnight stays for this winter.

The previous season gives an idea of the margin of error. On 6 November 2025, KOF forecast around 18.6 million overnight stays for winter 2025-2026, i.e. +0.7%. The FSO counted 18.7 million, i.e. +1.1%: the season slightly exceeded the forecast.

SeasonHotel overnight staysYear-on-year changeType of figure
Winter 2025-202618.7 million+1.1%FSO observed figure (record)
Winter 2026-202718.7 million−0.1%KOF forecast, October 2026
Summer 202525.2 millionrecordFigure cited by KOF
Summer 202625.0 million−0.5%KOF estimate, October 2026

Swiss guests carry the winter season

Swiss customers remain by far the largest group in winter. KOF expects around 9.5 million overnight stays from them, matching last winter's record level. The FSO had measured that record at 9.5 million (+1.6%), above the four previous winter seasons.

KOF puts forward two reasons for this stability. The Swiss economy remains solid. The franc, weaker than in spring despite a slight appreciation against the euro in October, makes holidays abroad more expensive and keeps winter stays in the country attractive.

European guests would rise slightly: around 5.6 million overnight stays, i.e. +0.8%. For many of them, Switzerland can be reached without an expensive plane ticket, KOF notes. Sluggish consumer spending in Europe would, however, curb this increase. KOF's groupings do not exactly match those of the FSO, which counted 5.8 million European overnight stays last winter: the two series cannot be compared line by line.

Long-haul markets remain the weak spot

KOF forecasts around 3.6 million overnight stays from long-haul markets, down 1.7%. The war in the Middle East is keeping oil prices high, which makes kerosene and long-haul plane tickets more expensive. Demand from Asia and the Gulf states would thus remain below its pre-war level.

The decline began last winter. According to the FSO, overnight stays by Asian guests fell by 10.1% (−155,000) to 1.4 million. The drop accelerated in March (−16.9%) and then in April 2026 (−28.4%). India, the Gulf states and South Korea saw the steepest declines.

The two readings diverge for the United States. Last winter, American guests posted their best result in three decades (+4.5%), according to the FSO. KOF now expects them to be somewhat more cautious, owing to weakened consumer sentiment and persistent inflation across the Atlantic.

A better-than-expected summer 2026

Summer 2026 pleasantly surprised KOF. In May 2026, KOF forecast 24.8 million overnight stays, 1.6% fewer than the 25.2 million of summer 2025. Its October estimate rose to around 25.0 million (−0.5%). Summer 2026 would thus become the second-best summer season, behind that of 2025.

According to KOF, Swiss and European guests offset a large part of the slump in long-haul markets. A very strong September tipped the balance. This figure remains an estimate: the FSO has not yet published its review of the summer 2026 season.

City and mountain hotels: differing expectations

Hoteliers do not all share the same optimism. According to KOF's business tendency surveys, their expectations for foreign guests remain lower than those for Swiss guests, even though they have recently improved. Establishments in the large cities are the most cautious, as they depend more on foreign guests.

This contrasts with last winter. According to the FSO, Ticino then gained 7.2%, and the cities also grew: +2.5% in Geneva and +1.6% in the Zurich region. Mountain regions advanced less: +0.7% in Valais, stable in Graubünden (+0.1%). In May 2026, KOF noted that the mountains benefit more from holidaymakers from nearby, whereas cities depend on intercontinental travel.

Snow, the decisive variable for resorts

For resorts and their ski lifts, snow matters as much as the economy. KOF writes that it can make the difference between a new record and a result below that of the previous winter. Its forecast covers hotel overnight stays; it does not put a figure on ski passes or on ski area turnover.

The end of the season is the fragile moment. In November 2025, KOF was already noting that higher temperatures and less reliable snow in the Alps are increasingly weakening demand in March. In March 2026, Swiss demand fell by 5.7%, according to the FSO. KOF attributes this weaker month partly to poorer snow conditions, on top of the effects of the war in Iran.

What we don't know yet

  • How the war in Iran develops, on which oil prices, air fares and therefore long-haul travel depend, according to KOF.
  • Snow cover this winter, particularly in March, which could tip the season above or below the record.
  • The official review of summer 2026: the 25.0 million overnight stays remain a KOF estimate, not yet confirmed by the FSO.

Sources