Two barometers of the Swiss economy published at the end of October 2026 contradict each other. According to the survey by audit and consulting firm Deloitte, reported on 29 October 2026 by finews.ch, 61% of chief financial officers expect the Swiss economy to develop positively over the next twelve months. The UBS-CFA barometer of financial analysts, by contrast, fell by 17.9 points in October, according to Allnews. The gap comes down first to who is answering, and to what they are being asked.

Two surveys, two opposite signals

The two surveys do not ask the same question of the same people. Side by side, their results on Switzerland look like this.

Deloitte surveyUBS-CFA barometer
Who answersChief financial officers of companies in SwitzerlandFinancial analysts surveyed by UBS and CFA Society Switzerland
Horizon for SwitzerlandNext twelve monthsNot specified by the source
Expect an improvement61%16.9%
Expect a deterioration8%32%
ChangeClear improvement compared with the previous surveyDrop of 17.9 points, the largest since March
Publicationfinews.ch, 29 October 2026Allnews (AWP), 28 October 2026

The gap is wide: 61% optimists on one side, 16.9% on the other. Yet the two figures do not measure the same thing, and neither is an observed fact. They are stated expectations.

Chief financial officers see their sales picking up

The Deloitte survey questions the chief financial officers (CFOs) of companies operating in Switzerland. Only 8% of them expect the Swiss economy to deteriorate. According to finews.ch, the mood has brightened markedly since the previous survey.

Their optimism rests on their own figures. 62% of CFOs expect their revenue to rise within the year. Only 43% did in the first half of 2026.

Their view of other countries is also improving. The outlook for China and the United States is judged better than in the spring. Germany is the exception: its assessment is brightening slightly, but its structural challenges remain significant, according to the survey.

The concerns have not gone away. Geopolitical risks come first, ahead of fears of weak demand or a recession. CFOs then cite regulation and political decisions.

Employment remains the weak spot of the survey. Many CFOs believe that artificial intelligence (AI) will reduce the number of jobs, particularly entry-level and junior positions. On average, they devote 0.9% of their total spending to AI, and consider these investments more expensive than expected.

Financial analysts move into negative territory

The UBS-CFA economic confidence barometer is compiled by the major bank UBS and CFA Society Switzerland, the Swiss association of financial analysts. According to the AWP news agency report published by Allnews on 28 October 2026, it fell by 17.9 points in October, to −15.3 points. After three consecutive months in positive territory, it has slipped into the red.

The breakdown shows a majority taking a wait-and-see stance. Just over half of the analysts expect the Swiss economy to remain stable. 32% anticipate a deterioration and 16.9% an upturn. 30% consider the current situation to be good.

Their view of other countries is darkening, unlike that of the CFOs. Half of the analysts expect a deterioration in the eurozone, and as many in the United States.

Interest rates are the survey's other signal. 45% of analysts now expect short-term interest rates in Switzerland to rise. A month earlier, one expert in three expected this. Nearly 45% are counting on no change. For Swiss inflation, 39% expect an increase and 47% no change.

Why the two readings diverge

The first difference lies in the people surveyed. A CFO judges first and foremost the orders and sales of their own company. A financial analyst observes the economy as a whole, the markets and the central banks.

The second lies in the horizon. Deloitte asks about the next twelve months. The report on the UBS-CFA barometer does not specify the horizon used, which limits a like-for-like comparison.

The third lies in the timing. The UBS-CFA barometer covers October 2026. The Deloitte survey is presented as the autumn edition, with no survey date in the source. And the climate changed in October.

Several October signals were covered by 2clics. The eurozone PMI, published on 23 October 2026 by S&P Global, fell to 51.9 points, from 53.1 in September. On 22 October, the euro dropped back below 0.92 francs: the Swiss franc is once again a safe haven, according to Keystone-ATS. The sources do not say whether these events weighed on the analysts' answers. They only make it possible to place the survey in this context.

What an SME can take away

For a small or medium-sized enterprise (SME), the two surveys do not cancel each other out: they shed light on different risks. Several figures help to put them in perspective.

  • Demand. CFOs expect sales to rise. Swiss exports in September grew by 1.5%, to 23.2 billion francs, according to the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (FOCBS).
  • The franc. A stronger franc reduces the value, in francs, of sales made in euros. No source has yet quantified the effect of the October rise on Swiss companies.
  • Interest rates. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate at 0% on 24 September 2026. The rise expected by 45% of analysts remains an expectation, not a decision. The SNB's next assessment is scheduled for 10 December 2026.
  • Trading partners. Credit insurer Allianz Trade forecasts a record number of bankruptcies in Switzerland, around 15,000 in 2026. The new insolvency law accounts for a large part of this, according to the insurer. The bankruptcy of a customer or supplier remains a concrete risk.
  • Employment. CFOs see weak hiring despite their optimism. Swiss telecom operator Sunrise announced 358 job cuts on 23 October 2026, notes the 2clics Swiss economy barometer.

What we do not know yet

  • The number of CFOs surveyed by Deloitte and the survey period are not given in the source.
  • The forecast horizon of the UBS-CFA barometer is not specified in the report.
  • The Swiss purchasing managers' index (PMI) for October, published by procure.ch, was not known as of 24 October 2026. In September, it stood at 55.3 points.
  • The SNB's decision of 10 December 2026 is not known.

Sources