The US consumer price index (CPI) for September, published on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 14:30 Paris time by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), shows prices rising 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, compared with 3.4% in August, according to Journal du Coin. The monthly increase matched the consensus, but the core component came as a surprise.

What the published figures say

The main driver is energy. According to the BLS release cited by Journal du Coin, gasoline prices jumped 9.1% between August and September, which on its own accounts for more than half of the monthly rise in the headline index. Year on year, at the end of September, energy is up 20.4%, gasoline 34.2% and heating oil 74.2%. The outlet attributes this move to oil climbing back above 100 dollars, against the backdrop of the war involving Iran. Food was unchanged in September.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose 0.3% in September, as in August, and reached 2.6% year on year, compared with 2.4% in August. The consensus had expected 0.2% for the month and a stable 2.4% year on year. This component therefore surprised to the upside, not the downside. In detail, again for September, shelter accelerated to 0.4%, airline fares rose 1.2% month on month (22.4% year on year) and used cars 0.7%.

A slowing job market

These prices come as employment indicators are weakening. In a report published on October 1, the firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 90,787 hiring plans announced by US employers in September, 23% fewer than in September 2025 (117,313) and the lowest level for a September since 2011, Journal du Coin reports. These are company announcements, not an official count. “Companies are in a wait-and-see period,” sums up Andy Challenger, the firm’s chief revenue officer, who cites energy costs and rising rates among the headwinds.

The official statistics point the same way. According to the BLS, whose figures were published on October 2, the US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Revisions pushed July to -10,000 jobs and lowered August from 162,000 to 133,000 jobs created.

How much room does the Fed have?

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023. It still projects core inflation of 3.4% for 2026 according to the PCE index, its benchmark measure, and the vast majority of the members of its committee expect at least one further hike by the end of the year, according to Journal du Coin. Its next decision is due on October 28.

Market expectations were not measured at the same time across the sources. Before the CPI release, markets gave “barely more than a one-in-four chance” of another tightening at the end of October, according to Journal du Coin. On the morning of October 14, the CME FedWatch tool indicated that investors were mostly betting on another hike in December, according to Allnews. How these probabilities were revised after the release is not documented in the sources consulted.

Fundamentally, the equation cuts both ways. A slowing job market argues rather for a pause, while accelerating core inflation argues for firmness. Journal du Coin expects the word “stagflation” to return to trading rooms, while tempering this: the core index remains at 2.6% year on year, “very far from the 2022 peaks,” and a spike in gasoline prices can reverse if the price of a barrel comes back down, which is not a given.

Dollar and bitcoin: reactions to be put in perspective

On the currency side, Allnews (AWP/AFP) described a stable dollar on the morning of October 14, before the release, after having “already strengthened markedly in recent weeks.” At around 11:20, the greenback was up 0.03% against the euro, at 1.1196 dollars per euro, and 0.06% against the yen, at 158.44 yen per dollar. Derek Halpenny of MUFG considered that the pressure on oil linked to the war in the Middle East is “favorable to a new phase of dollar strengthening.” The sources consulted do not describe how the dollar moved after the CPI release.

Bitcoin reacted quickly. According to Journal du Coin, drawing on CoinGecko, it went from around 83,700 to 82,800 dollars after the release, a drop of around 1.1% in five minutes, while ether stayed below 2,500 dollars. A move measured over a few minutes does not, on its own, allow any conclusion about a trend.

For a reader in Switzerland

For an investor in Switzerland holding dollar assets, the value in francs also depends on the exchange rate. The sources consulted do not provide a dollar-franc quote for that day; it is therefore not possible to draw any conclusion about the currency effect. The next identified milestones are the Fed decision on October 28, followed by the release of the October CPI on November 10. This article is for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources

  • Journal du Coin: “Crypto: US inflation accelerates, Bitcoin falls”
  • Allnews: “The dollar stable ahead of the US consumer price index”
  • Journal du Coin: “Bitcoin and the Fed: US hiring falls to its lowest since 2011”