On Monday 19 October 2026, the euro weakened against the dollar and the pound sterling. According to an AWP/AFP dispatch published by Allnews, the single currency was down 0.28% against the greenback at around 10:00 GMT (12:00 Paris time), at 1.1207 dollars per euro, and 0.27% against the British currency, at 84.10 pence per euro. The move follows a weekend of demonstrations in France marred by violence, which, according to the dispatch, cast doubt on the country's ability to contain its debt.

The published figures

All the figures below come from the same dispatch and were recorded on Monday 19 October 2026 at around 10:00 GMT:

  • euro/dollar: 1.1207 dollars per euro, down 0.28%;
  • euro/pound sterling: 84.10 pence per euro, down 0.27%;
  • bitcoin: 82,683.70 dollars, up 2.24%.

These are intraday movements. They say nothing about the closing level or about developments in the following days. The dispatch, however, gives no rate for the euro against the Swiss franc.

Why the euro is falling

The analysts quoted in the dispatch link the euro's decline to the budgetary and political situation in France, the second-largest economy in the eurozone, which is under close scrutiny from the financial markets because of the weight of its debt. “Political unrest in France, deteriorating sentiment and confidence in Europe and questions over fiscal stability continue to weigh on the single currency,” sums up Patrick Munnelly, analyst at Tickmill.

For Neil Wilson, analyst at Saxo Bank, “it will be difficult for a government to implement the fiscal discipline needed to reduce the deficit”. The dispatch recalls that the government has had no majority in the National Assembly since the dissolution of 2024, which is likely to complicate the adoption of the budget. President Emmanuel Macron's address on Sunday evening contained no major announcement, according to the same source.

On top of this comes the electoral horizon. The social unrest “reinforces investor concerns about the outcome of next year's elections in France and Italy”, notes Lee Hardman, analyst at MUFG. The French presidential election takes place in six months, the dispatch adds.

The ECB soon to go quiet

Another element of uncertainty lies in the calendar of the European Central Bank (ECB). Patrick Munnelly points out that, as the ECB's quiet period approaches later this week ahead of its end-of-month meeting, the markets will have few official indications to assess whether the French risk remains contained or spreads to the eurozone. In other words, investors will have to form a view without any comment from the institution for several days.

Euro Swiss franc: the mechanism, in the absence of a figure

The source mentions neither the Swiss franc nor the EUR/CHF rate. On this basis, it is therefore impossible to say how the pair reacted on Monday. What follows is a general explanation, not a finding backed by figures.

The franc is often regarded as a safe haven. When doubts about the eurozone grow, some investors may seek to reduce their exposure to the euro and turn to currencies considered safer. If this demand goes to the franc, fewer francs are needed to buy one euro: the EUR/CHF rate falls and the franc appreciates. This link is by no means automatic: other factors, such as interest rate differentials or central bank decisions, also weigh on the pair.

Swiss exporters and the SNB: what is not specified

The dispatch does not address the consequences for the Swiss economy. In principle, a strong franc reduces the value, once converted into francs, of sales made in euros by exporting companies. This is an effect we have already discussed in connection with Givaudan's nine-month sales. However, nothing in today's source indicates that Monday's move had a measurable effect on the franc.

Likewise, the source says nothing about any possible reaction from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The question of public debt also goes beyond the French case alone: the SNB and the FDF have warned of a risk of crisis linked to government debt.

A signal to be read with caution

In the same dispatch, the Tickmill analyst attributes the rise of bitcoin to “the weakening of the dollar and renewed appetite for alternative assets”. The text does not specify against which currencies the dollar was weakening, even though the euro was falling against it at the same time. This nuance is a reminder not to draw general conclusions from a single intraday reading.

In summary, the published facts are limited to a moderate decline of the euro against the dollar and the pound on Monday at midday. The link with French debt and the electoral calendar is a matter of analysis by the people quoted. For the Swiss franc, no rate is given and the effect remains, at this stage, a hypothesis.

Sources

  • Allnews: « L’euro pâtit des tensions sociales et politiques en France »