The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly raised its growth forecast for the global economy in 2026 on Tuesday, now expected at 3.1%. For 2027, it is counting on an acceleration to 3.4%, an unchanged figure. These projections appear in its new World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, published on the occasion of its annual meetings held in Bangkok, according to Allnews, which carries an AWP dispatch. These are forecasts: they describe what the institution expects, not what has been measured.
Two opposing forces
The IMF’s new chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, sums up the picture as two opposing movements. “Two forces are at work on the economy: on the one hand, a rise in energy prices that is creating negative supply shocks, reinforcing inflation; on the other, investment, mainly in artificial intelligence (AI), which is generating a demand shock,” she told the press.
The surge in energy prices is linked to the war in the Middle East. Investment in AI, for its part, is cushioning its impact. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday that the acceleration of AI “is what allows the global economy to maintain growth of 3%”, while noting that it remains concentrated in a few regions.
Advanced economies in the lead, emerging markets penalised
The upward revision for 2026 is due above all to the strong performance of advanced economies, particularly in Asia. Semiconductor-producing countries benefit the most: the IMF expects growth of 10.7% in Taiwan this year and 3.3% in South Korea. In the United States, the 2026 forecast remains unchanged at 2.3%, with investment in AI offsetting the rise in energy prices. The United Kingdom sees its projection raised to 1.3% (+0.3 point), notably thanks to the construction of data centres for AI, before slowing to 1.2% in 2027 (-0.1 point).
Emerging countries, for their part, are suffering from the surge in hydrocarbon prices. North Africa and the Middle East are expected to tip into recession this year. Saudi Arabia would end 2026 with a contraction of 3.3%, 5 points less than the July forecast, and this estimate does not factor in the seizure of control of a strait in the region by Yemen’s Houthis, which risks further hampering Saudi oil exports. The expected decline is more marked elsewhere: -16% for Iraq, almost as much for Qatar, -16.7% for Kuwait, -11.3% for Bahrain and -7.6% for Iran.
The two major emerging economies are diverging. China continues to slow, with 4.5% expected this year and 4% in 2027, figures that have been lowered because of weak domestic demand. India, by contrast, sees its 2026 forecast raised by 0.6 point, to 7%, driven by its domestic demand and the strength of its services sector.
The euro area stronger than expected
For the euro area, the IMF now expects growth of 1.1% in 2026, 0.2 point more than in July, then 1.2% in 2027, an unchanged forecast that would match the level of growth in 2025. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is pulling the whole along: after three difficult years, two of them in recession, its 2026 growth is revised up by 0.6 point, to 1.3%, and is then expected at 1.1% in 2027 (+0.1 point). Spain would reach 2.5% this year (+0.4 point) before 1.8% in 2027, and Italy 0.8% (+0.3 point) then 0.6% (+0.1 point).
France is the exception: 0.4% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, a downward revision of 0.2 point for each of the two years. The IMF cites the summer’s climate events, heatwaves and wildfires, as well as persistent political uncertainty; the country is also facing budgetary difficulties, a few months ahead of a presidential election.
Inflation remains a point of vigilance: it is expected at 3.1% in 2026 in the euro area and at 2.8% next year, above the 2% target set by the European Central Bank (ECB).
What this implies for an export-driven economy such as Switzerland
The available source does not mention any IMF forecast for Switzerland: that figure is therefore not given here, and it is not replaced by an estimate.
By way of analysis, several lines of these projections deserve the attention of an export-driven economy. A euro area in better shape than in July, and a Germany clearly accelerating, point to a more supportive environment for companies focused on these markets. Conversely, France’s weakness and China’s slowdown are a reminder that external demand remains uneven from one market to another.
The nature of this growth also calls for caution. By the IMF’s own admission, the momentum comes largely from investment in AI, concentrated in a few regions. For an exporting company, the question is therefore less the global figure than whether or not it has a place in the supply chains that benefit from it. High energy prices and above-target inflation in neighbouring countries can also weigh on companies’ costs and on households’ purchasing power.
Forecasts with conditions attached
The IMF itself highlights the risks. “A protracted or further escalation” of the conflicts in the Middle East or in Ukraine could, in particular, prolong the rise and volatility of commodity prices and further fuel inflation. Two readings therefore coexist: that of a global economy holding up thanks to AI, and that of growth that rests largely on a single engine and remains exposed to the energy shock. The figures for 2026 and 2027 remain projections, subject to revision.
