The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) once again lowered its forecast for global oil consumption growth in 2026 on Tuesday. In its October monthly report, the organization now expects demand to be 180,000 barrels per day higher than in 2025. At the end of February, at the start of the conflict in the Middle East, it was still anticipating an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day.
Six consecutive downward revisions
The figure of 180,000 barrels per day did not come all at once: this is the sixth consecutive month that OPEC has revised its numbers downward, by around 200,000 barrels per day in each report. Month after month, the growth forecast has thus moved closer to zero. This is still a projection for the whole of 2026, not measured consumption.
The regional breakdown sheds light on this shift. For the first time this year, OPEC estimates that Chinese consumption in 2026 is set to be lower than in 2025, by 60,000 barrels per day. In OECD countries, demand is expected to fall by 210,000 barrels per day compared with 2025, again according to the organization’s estimates.
Diesel at the heart of the revision
OPEC attributes this latest cut in particular to a decline of around 190,000 barrels per day in diesel demand. According to the dispatch, this product has become the tightest in the oil market, and it has been the subject of intense diplomatic negotiations for several weeks, against a backdrop of rising pump prices.
Here, the forecast must be distinguished from the observed facts. The observed facts concern prices: since February, the wholesale price of diesel in Rotterdam, the European benchmark, has more than doubled, rising from around 95 dollars a barrel to nearly 200 dollars in September, a high for the year. OPEC gives its interpretation: “The decline in the supply of Russian petroleum products, low inventory levels and seasonal refinery maintenance have continued to support prices.” The drop in demand, for its part, remains an expectation of the organization.
Saudi production picks up again
The revision comes despite a clear rebound in supply. Saudi Arabia, by far OPEC’s largest producer, posted in September its best month since the start of the war, at 8.372 million barrels per day, according to the report. In August, it had produced only 6.24 million barrels per day, its lowest level of the year.
2027, the year of catching up according to OPEC
The organization does not see this slowdown as a lasting trend. For 2027, it forecasts an increase in consumption of 2.6 million barrels per day compared with 2026. Demand “will be further supported next year by the need to rebuild oil inventories on a large scale,” it believes. Here again, this is a projection, made amid uncertainties linked to the war in the Middle East.
OPEC’s forecasts are only one reading of the market among others. Those of the International Energy Agency (IEA), published separately, are not included in the report cited here; comparing the two institutions will show whether the diagnosis of near-flat demand in 2026 is shared.
What questions for Switzerland?
The OPEC report says nothing about Switzerland, and it contains no Swiss figures. It does, however, raise several questions for the country’s households and businesses:
- To what extent is the doubling of the wholesale price of diesel in Rotterdam reflected in the prices paid at the pump and for heating oil in Switzerland, as winter approaches?
- How much weight will energy carry in the evolution of consumer prices measured by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) in the coming months?
- How do these tensions over petroleum products fit with the situation on the European gas market?
A weaker demand forecast does not automatically mean lower prices: the case of diesel shows that supply and inventory constraints can weigh more heavily. For hauliers, tradespeople or households heated with oil, it is the observed prices, more than OPEC’s projections, that will determine the bill.
