Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2026, and the eurozone's by 0.4%, according to flash estimates published on 30 October 2026 by Destatis, the German Federal Statistical Office, and by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union (EU). Both figures beat analysts' expectations. France, for its part, contracted by 0.1%. For Swiss exports, these are useful benchmarks, but still provisional ones.

Germany's GDP: +0.2%, driven by the state and households

Europe's largest economy did better than forecast. According to the Destatis release relayed by the AWP agency, German GDP rose by 0.2% between July and September compared with the second quarter, adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects. Analysts polled by the Factset platform had expected 0.1%.

German growth came from domestic demand. Higher spending by the state and households helped offset the decline in exports, the statistical office said. It is the fourth consecutive quarter of growth, according to Eurostat's series: +0.3% at the end of 2025, then +0.4%, +0.3% and +0.2% in 2026.

The pace is slowing, however. The second quarter had shown 0.3%. Very low water levels on the Rhine this summer disrupted freight transport, AWP reports. Jens-Oliver Niklasch, of the bank LBBW, also cites "a reorientation of production in the automotive industry". These one-off effects "slowed the trend, but without managing to reverse it", he believes.

Berlin is more confident than in the spring. At the beginning of October, the German government raised its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%, 0.8 points more than in the spring. That is a forecast, not an observed fact. On the jobs front, the unemployment rate remained stable at 6.4% in October.

Eurozone growth: 0.4%, a large share of it Irish

The European figure was also better than expected. According to Eurostat's flash estimate of 30 October 2026, GDP in the 21 eurozone countries grew by 0.4% quarter on quarter, and in the 27 EU countries by 0.5%. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected 0.2% for the eurozone, according to AFP.

It is nonetheless a slowdown. In the second quarter, the eurozone had grown by 0.6% and the EU by 0.7%. Year on year, growth reached 1.3% in the eurozone and 1.5% in the EU, after 1.2% and 1.4% in the previous quarter.

Ireland inflates the result. It posted +5.5%, the strongest increase in the zone. Eurostat urges particular caution in interpreting this figure: the Irish estimate is experimental and based on incomplete data. Without Ireland, eurozone growth falls to 0.2%, according to Paolo Grignani, an analyst at Oxford Economics, who considers this figure "decent".

The differences between countries are marked. Spain, the Netherlands and Estonia grew by 0.6%. Italy stagnated at 0.0%. Only Lithuania (-1.0%) and France (-0.1%) contracted. France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, is also the only country whose GDP fell year on year, by 0.1%. "The French economy is at a standstill," acknowledged the French Economy Minister, Roland Lescure.

How do economists read the coming months?

Opinions differ on what comes next. For Germany, Carsten Brzeski, an economist at the Dutch bank ING, sees the country "on track" to achieve its "best year since 2022". He attributes this improvement to the fiscal stimulus: hundreds of billions of euros for defence and infrastructure, which are beginning to "gradually flow into the economy".

For the zone as a whole, Bert Colijn, chief economist at ING, is more reserved. He judges the economy "resilient" despite the energy shock. But he notes that most of the zone's major economies grew less than in the second quarter. Excluding Ireland, he expects "modest" growth. Energy prices remain high, and companies are showing less appetite for borrowing with higher interest rates.

Paolo Grignani is mainly concerned about inflation. In his view, "the energy shock is spreading rapidly to other components" of prices. Surveys point towards caution: the eurozone PMI, published by S&P Global, fell from 53.1 points in September to 51.9 in October 2026. It still signals expansion, but a slower one.

Flash estimate or final figure: what can change?

The figures of 30 October are initial estimates. Eurostat publishes them around 30 days after the end of the quarter. They are based on data from 19 member states, covering 96% of eurozone GDP, and on incomplete sources that are due to be revised.

The revision schedule is set. Eurostat will publish a second flash estimate on 13 November 2026, then its regular estimates on 7 December 2026 and 19 January 2027. Each of them may change the announced rates.

The second quarter shows how large these corrections can be. On 30 July 2026, Eurostat announced 0.4% for the eurozone. Three months later, the figure had risen to 0.6%. France went the other way.

Second quarter 2026Flash estimate of 30 July 2026Figure published on 30 October 2026
Eurozone+0.4%+0.6%
European Union+0.5%+0.7%
Germany+0.2%+0.3%
France+0.2%0.0%
Ireland+3.9%+10.2%

Change in GDP compared with the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted data, according to Eurostat releases. A difference of 0.1 or 0.2 points is therefore enough to change the reading of a quarter, particularly for a country close to zero such as France.

What this means for Swiss exports

Germany is Switzerland's largest European market. According to the 2024 annual report on foreign trade by the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (FOCBS), cited by the Confederation's SME portal, it takes 15% of Swiss exports. Only the United States ranks ahead of it, with 19%. Slovenia follows, with 9%.

Swiss foreign trade also held up in the third quarter. According to the FOCBS, exports rose by 2.6% to 75.0 billion francs. In September, they grew by 1.5% to 23.2 billion, as detailed in our article on Swiss exports in September.

The nature of German growth matters for Swiss suppliers. It rests on the state and households, while German exports are declining. Swiss companies that supply Germany's export industry therefore do not necessarily benefit from this quarter. The public investment in defence and infrastructure described by ING opens up another source of demand. Its effect on Swiss orders, however, has not yet been quantified.

France remains the weak spot. For watchmaking, France and Italy together form the second-largest export destination, according to Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at the bank Vontobel. Yet France contracted and Italy stagnated in the third quarter.

The Swiss franc and the National Bank facing a stronger eurozone

The first link between these figures and the franc runs through interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate at 2.5% on 29 October 2026, as explained in our article on the ECB's unchanged rates. On the Swiss side, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate at 0% on 24 September 2026. The gap therefore stands at 2.5 points. Our article on the SNB policy rate explains how it is set.

In October, the franc reacted above all to doubts about France. On 19 October, the euro fell 0.28% against the dollar, weighed down by violence in France, as noted in our article on the euro amid French tensions. On 22 October, it dropped back below 0.92 francs, the franc's highest level since early July, according to Keystone-ATS. Keystone-ATS sees this as the return of the Swiss franc as a safe haven.

A strong franc weighs on exporters. It reduces the value, once converted into francs, of sales made in euros. The flavours and fragrances group Givaudan put a figure on it for the first nine months of 2026: currency effects weighed 4%, or 234 million francs.

The SNB will announce its decision on 10 December 2026. Readings differ. Economists at Raiffeisen Switzerland believe a rate hike could come as early as that date. Financial expert Dirk Renkert, on the contrary, believes the SNB should not be "particularly in a hurry to raise its rates". The private bank UBP considers it possible, in the medium term, for the euro to fall to just under 0.90 francs. These are hypotheses, not observed facts.

What we don't know yet

  • Whether the eurozone's 0.4% and Germany's 0.2% will withstand Eurostat's revisions of 13 November and 7 December 2026.
  • The effect of the German stimulus and the French decline on orders from Swiss SMEs: no source measures it yet.
  • The SNB's decision of 10 December 2026, on which opinions remain divided.

Sources