Private-sector growth in the euro area slowed in October 2026. The flash PMI published on 23 October by S&P Global fell to 51.9 points, from 53.1 in September. In France, it dropped to 48.4, below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction. Protests in France and rising energy prices explain this slowdown, according to S&P Global.
What does the PMI measure?
The Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, is a barometer drawn from surveys of companies. It is based on what the companies surveyed report about their activity.
Reading it comes down to a threshold. Above 50 points, the index signals an expansion in activity; below it, a decline. A drop from 53.1 to 51.9 therefore indicates slower growth, not a contraction.
Its value lies in its speed. S&P Global publishes its PMIs every month, ahead of comparable official statistics. The euro area flash index came out on 23 October 2026 at 08:00 UTC, and France's at 07:15 UTC, even before the end of the month being measured.
Euro area: growth slowing from a still-high level
The October figure can be read in two ways. In September, the index had reached 53.1 points, its highest level since 2023. The drop to 51.9 therefore marks a clear slowdown over one month.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global, stresses the other reading. In his view, the index remains "one of the highest recorded over the past three years". The euro area private sector is therefore still growing, but more slowly.
The main drag comes from France. French services fell back into decline, after the social protests and riots that hit many shopkeepers. But activity also slowed in the rest of the euro area, in manufacturing as well as in services.
The rise in fuel prices, linked to the conflict in the Middle East, is weighing everywhere. It has pushed the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten its monetary policy. Chris Williamson also notes "a renewed intensification of inflationary pressures".
France: a shrinking private sector and sentiment at its lowest since 2020
In France, the private-sector index fell from 51.1 in September to 48.4 in October, its lowest level in four months. Both services (48.4) and manufacturing (48.5) are contracting.
Demand fell at the sharpest rate since May. The companies surveyed describe customers who are postponing their decisions and deferring new projects. Export orders are declining for the eleventh consecutive month.
Employment is falling for the sixth month in a row, with departures not replaced and fixed-term contracts not renewed. The twelve-month outlook indicator dropped to its lowest level since April 2020. S&P Global links this pessimism to the approach of the 2027 presidential election and to the budget debates.
Prices are sending a mixed signal. Pressures have eased overall, but manufacturing selling prices rose at the sharpest rate since May. For Joe Hayes, an analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the rise in energy prices "has not yet spread notably to the rest of the economy".
October's PMIs in one table
| Index | Scope | September 2026 | October 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area flash PMI (S&P Global) | Private sector | 53.1 | 51.9 |
| France flash PMI (S&P Global) | Private sector | 51.1 | 48.4 |
| France flash PMI, services | Services | not disclosed | 48.4 |
| France flash PMI, manufacturing | Manufacturing | not disclosed | 48.5 |
| Swiss PMI (procure.ch) | Manufacturing | 55.3 | not yet published |
These indices do not cover the same scope. The Swiss PMI covers manufacturing, whereas the headline figures for the euro area and France also include services. The comparison gives a trend, not a ranking.
What this means for Swiss exports
The European slowdown comes just as Swiss foreign trade was recovering. According to the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (FOCBS), Swiss exports in September rose by 1.5%, to 23.2 billion francs. Over the third quarter, they gained 2.6%, to 75.0 billion.
The increase affected several sectors. The machinery, electronics and equipment industry grew by 3.1%, to 13.7 billion francs, and watchmaking by 4.7%, to 6.7 billion.
France weighs directly on certain sectors. For watchmaking, France and Italy together form the second-largest export destination. Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Vontobel, had already noted that the unrest in these two countries adds to the uncertainty over consumption and tourism.
The French PMI describes customers deferring their projects. That is an observation about French companies. No source has yet measured its effect on orders placed with Swiss suppliers.
Signals from Swiss industry remain mixed, in fact. The figures of the week compiled by 2clics show orders rising sharply at ABB and Comet, but slipping slightly at Huber+Suhner. In September 2026, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) also reported below-average capacity utilisation in manufacturing.
The Swiss franc, a safe haven amid doubts over the euro area
The franc appreciated markedly in October. On 22 October 2026, in the early afternoon, the euro fell back below 0.92 francs, the franc's strongest level since early July. The dollar was then worth 0.82 francs. This return of the Swiss franc as a safe haven follows market concerns over French debt and politics.
Doubts about France were already weighing on the euro. On 19 October 2026, the euro was falling against the dollar by 0.28% at midday, hit by the violence in France.
For an exporter, a strong franc reduces the value in francs of sales made in euros. Givaudan illustrated this over the first nine months of 2026: currency effects weighed by 4%, or 234 million francs. No source has yet quantified the effect of October's rise on Swiss companies.
Projections diverge on what comes next. The private bank UBP considers it possible, in the medium term, for the rate to reach slightly below 0.90 francs per euro. That is a bank's assumption, not an observation. The SNB policy rate remains at 0%, and its next assessment is scheduled for 10 December 2026.
procure.ch's Swiss PMI, the next benchmark
In Switzerland, the Purchasing Managers' Index is published by procure.ch, the professional association for purchasing and supply management. It rose by 3.9 points in August 2026, to 57.1, then fell by 1.8 points in September, to 55.3.
This level remains "well above 50", according to procure.ch. Swiss industry was therefore well above the growth threshold at the end of the summer, when the euro area reached its highest level since 2023. The October figure will show whether the European slowdown is spreading to Swiss industry.
What we don't know yet
- The Swiss PMI for October has not yet been published: there is nothing to say whether it will follow the European decline.
- The outlook remains divided. S&P Global contrasts French pessimism with the "favourable outlook" reported in the other countries in the survey.
- The ECB has yet to meet at the end of October: its decision is not known.
- The effect of the strong franc and of French demand on orders for Swiss SMEs has not yet been measured.
