Roche returned to growth over the first nine months of 2026. On 22 October 2026, the Basel-based pharmaceutical group reported sales of 46.49 billion francs, up 1.4% in francs and 6% in local currencies. A less burdensome franc in the third quarter made the difference.
A third quarter that reverses the trend
The rebound came between July and the end of September. Over those three months, Roche's sales rose 8.1% in francs, to 16.13 billion, and 7% in local currencies. At the end of the first half, the group was still reporting a slight decline in its sales in francs.
These figures are at the upper end of the projections of analysts surveyed by the AWP news agency. According to the Keystone-ATS news agency, Roche even comfortably beat their estimates.
Why Roche grows less in francs than in local currencies
The gap between 1.4% and 6% measures the cost of the strong franc over the period. Roche reports its accounts in Swiss francs. When the franc appreciates, sales made in other currencies are worth less once converted.
This currency effect reversed over the course of the year, according to Roche's figures reported by Keystone-ATS:
| Period | Currency effect on sales |
|---|---|
| First quarter 2026 | −11% |
| Second quarter 2026 | −4% |
| Third quarter 2026 | +1% |
The third quarter is therefore the first of the year in which currency helped the group. According to Keystone-ATS, this development was in line with analysts' expectations.
Medicines up, diagnostics stabilised
The Pharma division is driving growth. Its sales rose 1.8% over nine months, to 36.21 billion francs, according to AWP; Keystone-ATS rounds this increase to 2%.
Five medicines are pulling the whole: Xolair, Hemlibra, Ocrevus, Phesgo and Vabysmo. They brought in 16.8 billion francs. The two agencies differ on their growth: 6% according to AWP, 12% according to Keystone-ATS, with neither specifying its basis of calculation.
These growth drivers offset the erosion of older products. Avastin, Herceptin, MabThera/Rituxan, Lucentis and Actemra/RoActemra lost some 600 million francs to biosimilar copies.
Xolair illustrates this twofold movement. This asthma and allergy medicine, approved more than twenty years ago, is making a strong comeback to reduce the risk of anaphylaxis linked to food allergies. Roche expects it to keep growing next year, despite the arrival of cheaper copies.
The Diagnostics division posted 10.28 billion francs, down 0.3%. It had suffered from a reform of medical device pricing in China. Its sales had fallen 7% in the first quarter and 3% in the first half. The third quarter marks a turnaround.
Roche's forecasts: confirmed, but not raised
Management is maintaining its targets for 2026, which remain forecasts. It is aiming for sales growth of around 5% excluding currency effects. Core earnings per share are expected to grow by slightly less than 10%. Roche is also committed to raising its dividend in francs.
This status quo disappointed investors who had hoped for an upgrade, according to Bloomberg. For Michael Leuchten, an analyst at Jefferies, this choice "should raise questions about the growth trajectory in 2027".
Analysts' readings of the quality of the quarter differ:
- Urban Fritsche, at Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB), believes Roche can approach the coming months and its product launches with confidence;
- Barclays notes that half of the positive surprise came from early purchases of medicines in Japan, ahead of the introduction of a new IT system;
- UBS believes this timing effect could reverse as early as the fourth quarter.
Chief executive Thomas Schinecker is confident beyond 2026. He expects further increases in sales and margins. He highlights a stricter selection of research projects, introduced at the end of 2023.
What is Roche stock doing?
The stock market reaction remained modest on 22 October 2026. During the session, the stock lost less than 1% in Zurich, according to Bloomberg. At the close, the Roche non-voting equity security was up 0.03%, at 392.10 francs, in an SMI down 0.03%, according to AWP.
The stock had already risen well beforehand. According to Bloomberg, it had gained around 19% from the start of the year to 21 October 2026, more than the other major European pharmaceutical groups. Its Swiss rival Novartis, facing patent expiries, gained 16% over the same period.
Thomas Schinecker takes aim at Europe
Roche's boss has hardened his tone towards European governments. "The US and Asia are really playing to win, and I have the feeling that Europe is increasingly playing not to lose," he said on Bloomberg Television. In future, Roche will only invest in countries that reward innovation.
These remarks follow Roche's suspension of its investments in Germany. The group was protesting against a health reform aimed at cutting costs. US-based Eli Lilly and Germany's Boehringer Ingelheim have also announced that they are dropping certain investments in the country.
To renew its portfolio, Roche is turning to Asia. The group has signed six deals in China since August. One of them, announced on 19 October 2026, concerns antibody-drug conjugates from Hansoh, for 510 million dollars upfront. According to Thomas Schinecker, Asia accounted for half of the group's transactions last year, with the rest taking place in the United States.
Roche is also stepping up in-licensing from outside, such as that of a Rona Therapeutics compound against obesity. The chief executive says the group is under less pressure than some competitors to buy late-stage projects.
What these figures mean for Swiss pharma
Swiss pharma remains the country's main export pillar. According to the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (FOCBS), chemicals and pharmaceuticals accounted for more than half of Swiss exports in the third quarter. Their shipments rose 1.6% between July and September, to 39.3 billion francs, after a rebound of 15.7% in the second quarter. The details are in our article on Swiss exports in September.
Transactions with foreign partners are multiplying in the sector: the figures of the week noted that Zug-based contract manufacturer Polypeptide was passing under the control of Samsung Biologics.
The debate on prices also affects Switzerland. According to swissinfo.ch, pharmaceutical groups continue to press Europe, including Switzerland, to raise drug prices.
What we don't know yet
- Jobs in Switzerland: the publications of 22 October 2026 say nothing about Roche's headcount or investments in Switzerland. Thomas Schinecker's remarks do not specify what his investment criteria imply for Switzerland.
- Profit: Roche traditionally does not publish profit figures for the first and third quarters. Profitability over nine months therefore remains unknown.
- The Japan effect: the scale of the possible decline in the fourth quarter, once the early purchases have unwound, has not been quantified.
- Diagnostics in 2027: the division's return to growth, once the effect of the Chinese reform has been absorbed, remains a management projection.
