The bitcoin price fell back to around $81,500 on the morning of Friday, October 23, 2026, according to Journal du Coin. Three forces weighed at the same time: $635.6 million in outflows from US bitcoin ETFs on October 22, according to Farside Investors, the Nasdaq's worst session since June, and a barrel of Brent above $112, which revives fears of persistently high interest rates.

Why the bitcoin price fell below $82,000

The drop was swift. On October 21, bitcoin was still above $84,000 and hit a high of around $84,800, according to Journal du Coin. It therefore shed more than $3,000 in two days and is moving closer to the $80,000 threshold.

The signal came from Wall Street on Thursday, October 22. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.6%, and the S&P 500 down 1.21%. Meta lost 6.98%, AMD 8.1% and Nvidia 4.4%, amid doubts about how spending on artificial intelligence will be financed.

Bitcoin followed tech. Rick Maeda, head of markets at Laevitas, told The Block that crypto "trades like a high-beta tech position". In other words, it amplifies the swings of technology stocks, both up and down.

Leverage accelerated the decline. CoinGlass counted $440.9 million in liquidations over 24 hours on crypto derivatives, including $397 million on bets that prices would rise. A liquidation is a position financed with borrowed money that the platform forcibly closes when the price turns. At the end of September, the CoinGecko report on the crypto market already put the open interest of the top ten perpetuals platforms at $102.2 billion.

The wave reached Asia overnight. Early in the session on Friday, October 23, South Korea's Kospi was down 2.3% and Japan's Nikkei 1.6%, according to Journal du Coin.

Bitcoin ETFs: more than a billion in three sessions, then the cold shower

Spot bitcoin ETFs are exchange traded funds backed by real bitcoins. Their daily flows measure the money going into or out of these funds. They say nothing, however, about the path of each individual investor.

The week had started well for them. According to Farside Investors, US funds took in $526.7 million on October 19, $23.2 million on the 20th and $524.8 million on the 21st. That is about $1.07 billion in three sessions, according to Journal du Coin's calculation.

The aggregators do not give exactly the same figures. For October 21, SoSoValue counts $528.4 million in inflows, against $524.8 million at Farside. That day, BlackRock's IBIT attracted $235 million and Fidelity's FBTC $212.7 million, nearly 85% of the daily total.

October 22 turned everything around. Farside records $635.6 million in net outflows, SoSoValue $635.5 million. This single session wipes out nearly 60% of the purchases of the previous three days.

Session (2026)Total net flowIBIT (BlackRock)FBTC (Fidelity)
October 19+526.7+665.2−83.6
October 20+23.2+29.9+3.6
October 21+524.8+235.0+212.7
October 22−635.6−254.1−217.5

Net flows of US spot bitcoin ETFs, in millions of dollars. Source: Farside Investors.

The October 22 outflows hit almost every issuer. According to Farside, ARKB lost $109.4 million, BITB $27.4 million and Grayscale's GBTC $29.5 million. Only the Morgan Stanley fund ended in the green, with $2.3 million. Ether ETFs, for their part, returned $110.5 million the same day, according to Journal du Coin.

The balance of the four sessions remains positive, at $439 million. That is little by historical standards. CoinDesk calculates that average daily inflows have been around $86 million since July 1. They reached about $235 million during bitcoin's three big rallies since these funds were launched in January 2024.

The October context sheds light on this back-and-forth. Bitcoin ETFs had lost $681 million in the week ending October 9, then about $228.6 million the following week, according to Journal du Coin. The October 19 inflows, the best since September 22, relied mainly on IBIT, as we noted with JPMorgan's assumptions. Since January 2024, these funds have accumulated $57.96 billion in net inflows, according to SoSoValue as of October 21.

Oil, the Fed, rates: the channel weighing on the crypto market

Oil does not weigh directly on bitcoin. It weighs on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its rates, and it is through this channel that crypto takes the hit. Brent topped $112 on October 22, its highest since May, and US WTI crossed $100 during the session, according to Journal du Coin.

The tension stems from the Strait of Hormuz. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) port monitor counted four transits there on October 18, against 85 a day before the crisis. This passage carried 20 million barrels a day, one fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade.

Expensive oil fuels inflation. The US consumer price index came in at 3.7% year on year in September, against 3.4% the previous month. Core inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.6%, and gasoline became 7.1% more expensive in September alone.

Economists have changed their scenario. In a Reuters poll conducted from October 16 to 20, 94 out of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold rates on October 28. All of them anticipate a hike in December, against fewer than half a month earlier.

Long-term rates are following. The yield on the ten-year US Treasury stood at 5.12% on the morning of October 22, according to Journal du Coin. Persistently high rates raise the cost of money and penalize assets that pay no yield, such as bitcoin. The same rate channel acts on the dollar exchange rate.

Miners are exposed too. On September 25, JPMorgan estimated the average cost of producing one bitcoin at around $85,000. At $82,700 on October 22, the network was therefore mining below this benchmark. The same bank had, however, lowered it to $77,000 in February: this threshold moves quickly.

Monero bucks the trend of the major cryptocurrencies

Monero (XMR), a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, did the opposite of the market. On October 22 at 7:55, it was worth $645.02 on CoinMarketCap, up 11.48% over 24 hours. It was still languishing at $580 the day before, hit by a ZachXBT investigation into the FreedomXMR conversion service.

Derivatives fueled the jump. According to CoinGlass, the funding rate on XMR perpetual contracts went from 0.0022% to 0.0480% between October 21 and 22. This rate, paid by leveraged buyers, was multiplied by nearly 22 in a single day.

The January precedent calls for caution. Open interest on XMR had then peaked at around $320 million according to SoSoValue, before a spike close to $800, followed by a fall below $300 in early February. CoinGlass measured $319.2 million on October 22, an amount of the same order.

The rest of the board turned red. On the evening of October 22, Benzinga reported ether down 4% over 24 hours at $2,373. XRP lost 4.6% to $1.30 and dogecoin 4.7% to $0.078. On October 23 at around 7 a.m., XMR was trading at around $607.

What this changes for an investor in Switzerland

The figures in this article remain in dollars: none of our sources gives an exchange rate with the franc. The flows described also concern US funds, not products listed in Switzerland.

The Swiss market is nonetheless evolving. On October 20, 2026, FINMA authorized the first Swiss bitcoin ETF open to the public. Its press release gave neither the name of the provider nor the listing date. The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority reminded investors that the capital invested can lose a significant part of its value.

A listed fund does not protect against volatility. Bitcoin has already lost more than 50% of its value several times, and a listed product falls just as much. There is also a time gap: bitcoin trades around the clock, while the stock exchange closes in the evening and at weekends. We compared bitcoin held directly or through an ETP, with their fees and custody risks. This article does not constitute investment advice.

What we don't know yet

  • The bitcoin ETF flows for October 23: Farside was not yet showing them at the time of writing.
  • The effect of S&P Global's flash manufacturing PMI, released on the afternoon of October 23. According to Dominick John (Zeus Research), it could shift bets on rates.
  • The Fed's October 28 decision, which the Reuters poll mostly expects to bring no change.
  • Whether $80,000 holds: for Dan Khus (LVRG Research), traders are watching this support and ETF flows, as one year after the crash of October 10.

Sources